天风证券：晨会集萃-20241220

Group 1: Credit Bonds Outlook - In 2024, credit bond yields have generally declined, and in 2025, credit bonds are expected to face risks such as thinner coupons and likely low yields at the start of the year [16] - The "asset shortage" is anticipated to persist, with the bank loan demand index at a seasonal low, indicating that financing demand has not yet rebounded [16] - The supply side remains tight, with high-yield assets still scarce, and the financing environment for local government bonds is expected to remain stringent [16] Group 2: Water Power Sector - Water power is characterized by abundant cash flow and high dividends, making it a typical dividend asset. For example, from 2016 to 2023, the average ratio of operating cash flow to net profit for Changjiang Power was 1.72 times [4][24] - The gap between the dividend yield of Changjiang Power and the ten-year government bond yield has widened, with the current spread exceeding 100 basis points [4][24] - As the ten-year government bond yield has dropped to 1.72%, the configuration value of water power assets is expected to increase, making them attractive in a declining interest rate environment [4][25] Group 3: Semiconductor and AI Applications - The introduction of the new visual understanding model by Doubao is expected to significantly enhance image and text recognition capabilities, expanding the application scenarios for AI [18][19] - The SoC market is projected to grow from $138.46 billion in 2024 to $205.97 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 8.3%, driven by AI and machine learning demands [21] - The demand for AIOT is expected to grow rapidly, with SOC as a core technology driving innovation and demand in various applications [22]