平安证券：晨会纪要-20241220

Group 1: Semiconductor Industry Insights - The semiconductor industry is characterized by an oligopolistic structure, with advanced processes and specialized technologies developing simultaneously. The foundry sector plays a crucial role in advancing process nodes, with the top five players holding a combined market share of 89.7% [7][8][9] - TSMC leads the advanced process technology, achieving a market share of 62.3% in Q2 2024, significantly ahead of Samsung Foundry at 11.5%. TSMC's annual production capacity exceeds 16 million wafers [8][9] - In mainland China, the semiconductor industry faces challenges due to frequent overseas sanctions, particularly affecting the foundry sector. However, significant progress has been made in mature processes and specialized technologies, with domestic players like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor gaining market share in specific areas [9][10] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the foundry sector, emphasizing the importance of self-sufficiency in light of overseas sanctions. The industry is expected to grow driven by demand from AI, IoT, and new energy vehicles, with advanced processes and specialized technologies developing in tandem [9][10] - Specific companies to watch include Jinghe Integrated Circuit, SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and Huazhong Microelectronics, as they are positioned to benefit from the ongoing industry developments [9][10] Group 3: Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's December meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the target range to 4.25%-4.50%. The decision aligns with market expectations, but the Fed's hawkish stance has led to significant market adjustments [11][12][27] - Economic forecasts indicate a cautious approach to future rate cuts, with expectations of only two cuts in 2025. The Fed has raised its GDP growth forecast for 2024 to 2.5% and adjusted inflation expectations upward [11][12][27] - Market reactions included a rise in bond yields and a decline in major stock indices, reflecting the Fed's more hawkish outlook than previously anticipated [22][27]