2025年农业景气跟踪系列一：顺周期农业买什么？

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agricultural sector, specifically focusing on the cyclical opportunities within the industry [8] Core Views - The agricultural sector is expected to benefit from the gradual recovery of terminal consumption in 2025, driven by macroeconomic policy support [2][5] - The sector combines cyclical and consumer attributes, with supply-side dynamics driving the cycle, while economic recovery boosts demand, widening the supply-demand gap and lifting agricultural product prices [2][5] - The livestock farming industry, particularly pig farming, poultry farming, and aquatic feed, is directly benefiting from the recovery in catering consumption, making these sub-sectors the preferred choices for cyclical agricultural investments [2][5][17] - Key recommended companies include Muyuan Foods, Wens Group, Ju Xing Agriculture, Shennong Group, Lihua Group, Haid Group, and Sunner Development [2][5][17] Sector-Specific Analysis Livestock Farming - Pig farming is transitioning from high profitability driven by price cycles to high-quality development driven by cost reductions, with cost leadership becoming a core competitive advantage [17] - The recovery in terminal consumption is expected to drive a rebound in pork demand, lifting the price center and benefiting high-quality pig farming companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Group, Ju Xing Agriculture, and Shennong Group [17] - The poultry farming industry saw a systemic decline in breeding costs in 2024, maintaining profitability despite low prices, with the recovery in terminal consumption expected to drive an upward profit inflection point in 2025 [17] - Key recommendations in poultry farming include Lihua Group and Sunner Development [17] Aquatic Feed - Aquatic feed is directly benefiting from the recovery in consumption, with prices of common aquatic products gradually rebounding after two years of destocking (2022-2023) [18] - The recovery in catering consumption is expected to drive a rebound in specialty aquatic feed in 2025, with Haid Group being a top recommendation [18] Historical Performance and Economic Recovery - Historical data shows that economic recovery significantly boosts meat demand, with pig farming being the most prominent beneficiary [6] - During the 2010 pig cycle, pig prices rose by 105% due to demand-side boosts from economic recovery, outperforming the 2015-2016 cycle [6] - In 2008-2011, the pig farming sector saw a 15 9 pct increase in ROE, with stock prices doubling, while the 2014-2017 period saw a 6 4 pct increase in ROE and a 21 5% stock price increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index [6] - The current cycle shows limited supply-side fluctuations, making terminal demand a more significant driver of profitability in the livestock sector [6] Poultry and Feed Sectors - As a low-cost protein alternative to pork, chicken prices historically rise with pork price increases, and the feed sector benefits as a downstream industry [29] - In 2010, the poultry farming and feed sectors saw ROE increases of 3 9 pct and 1 5 pct, respectively, with stock price gains of 38% and 2 4%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [29]