鲍威尔和他的“戈多”

Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, but four officials supported keeping rates unchanged, indicating a divided outlook on future monetary policy[3] - The core PCE inflation expectation for 2025 has been revised upward to 2.5%, reflecting a more hawkish stance among Fed officials[4] - The overall expectation for rate cuts in 2025 has narrowed to 50 basis points, suggesting limited confidence in aggressive monetary easing[4] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Risks - The current strong internal momentum of the U.S. economy raises questions about the necessity of continuous rate cuts, as economic growth remains robust[4] - The interplay of inflation concerns and economic growth creates a scenario where the Fed's actions may not align with market expectations, leading to potential risks[1] - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies and their impact on the economy could complicate the Fed's monetary strategy moving forward[2] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's decision, U.S. stock markets experienced significant declines, and Treasury yields rose, indicating market skepticism about the timing of future rate cuts[9] - The labor market's resilience and ongoing consumer confidence suggest that inflation control measures will become increasingly critical, raising doubts about the Fed's current approach[9]