Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the defense and military industry [1] Core Insights - The military industry is expected to experience a structural reversal in demand by 2025, continuing into 2026, driven by the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the military's centennial goals [1][12] - The performance of the military sector in 2024 reflects a continuation of the downturn seen in 2023, with a median revenue growth rate of -8.23% and a median net profit growth rate of -37.36% for 111 military-related companies [1][27] - The report highlights significant volatility in the military sector, with the defense and military index showing a decline of 11.36% since November 2022, while the index has increased by 14.22% from the beginning of 2024 to December 6, 2024 [1][12] Summary by Sections 1. Military Sector Review - The military sector has experienced significant underperformance, with the defense and military index ranking 24th among 30 industry indices [1][12] - The total market capitalization of the defense and military sector is approximately 20,334.67 billion yuan, accounting for 2.03% of the total A-share market [1][12] 2. Fundamental Analysis - The military sector's performance in 2024 has been adversely affected by several factors, including high revenue and profit bases from the previous years and ongoing price pressures in equipment procurement [1][15] - The report notes that the demand release rhythm has slowed down, impacting revenue growth for many military companies [1][26] 3. Investment Strategy - The report identifies key investment directions, including missile weaponry, information technology, and small to medium-sized equipment, which are expected to recover significantly [1][4] - The military trade sector is anticipated to benefit from geopolitical events, leading to increased demand for military exports [1][4] 4. Key Companies - The report highlights several companies with "Buy" ratings, including: - 菲利华 (Philips) [1] - 航天电器 (Aerospace Electric) [1] - 航天南湖 (Aerospace Nanhu) [1] - 国睿科技 (Guorui Technology) [1] - 航发动力 (Aero Engine) [1] - 中航沈飞 (AVIC Shenyang Aircraft) [1] - 中航高科 (AVIC High-Tech) [1] - 光威复材 (Guangwei Composite) [1] - 海格通信 (Haige Communication) [1] - 七一二 (712) [1] - 国科军工 (Guoke Military Industry) [1] - 国泰集团 (Guotai Group) [1] - 航天电子 (Aerospace Electronics) [1]
军工行业2025年投资策略:“十四五”收官之年,结构性反转可待
兴业证券·2024-12-20 01:04