12月美联储议息会议点评：通胀担忧卷土重来，连续降息告一段落

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25-4.50% in December 2024, as expected by the market[12] - The Fed's future rate adjustments will depend on subsequent data and economic outlook, indicating a slowdown in the pace of future rate cuts[12] - The economic forecast was revised upwards for GDP and inflation, while the unemployment rate forecast was lowered, reflecting increased confidence in the economic outlook[12] Group 2: Inflation Concerns - Discussions during the press conference focused more on inflation than employment, suggesting a renewed emphasis on inflation in the Fed's dual mandate[12] - Concerns about inflation have resurfaced, primarily due to uncertainties stemming from Trump's policies[12] - Powell acknowledged that inflation uncertainty is rising, indicating a cautious approach to future monetary policy adjustments[12] Group 3: Market Expectations - The dot plot indicates a significant reduction in the expected magnitude of rate cuts for the following year[12] - As long as employment data does not deteriorate significantly, the Fed is expected to pause rate cuts starting in January 2025[12] - The market is pricing in a high probability (91.4%) that the Fed will pause rate cuts in the upcoming meetings[17]