翰森制药：Oral GLP-1 candidate accomplished transaction with MSD

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating for Hansoh Pharma with a target price raised to HK$25.24 from HK$24.11, indicating a potential upside of 37.6% from the current price of HK$18.34 [3][20]. Core Insights - Hansoh Pharma has successfully out-licensed its oral GLP-1 drug candidate HS-10535 to MSD, receiving an upfront payment of US$112 million and potential milestone payments up to US$1.9 billion, along with future sales royalties [1]. - The company has a robust pipeline of GLP-1 assets, including Fulaimei, HS-20094, and HS-10501, with ongoing clinical trials that position it competitively in the global oral GLP-1 drug development race [1][18]. - The safety profile of oral GLP-1 drugs is a critical differentiating factor, with various candidates showing promising weight loss data and varying safety concerns [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 10,104 million in FY23A to RMB 12,301 million in FY24E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.7% [2][23]. - Net profit is expected to increase significantly from RMB 3,277.5 million in FY23A to RMB 4,382.9 million in FY24E, marking a growth of 33.7% [2][23]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB 0.55 in FY23A to RMB 0.74 in FY24E, with a P/E ratio decreasing from 31.1x to 23.3x [2][23]. Pipeline Development - Hansoh's HS-20094, a GLP-1/GIP dual agonist, has initiated a Phase 3 obesity study in China, with Phase 2 trial results expected next year [1]. - The company is also advancing HS-10501 through Phase 1 trials, further expanding its GLP-1 drug portfolio [1]. - The collaboration with MSD is anticipated to accelerate the development of HS-10535 and unlock its global potential [1].