滔搏：维持业绩指引，期待後续Nike业绩改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 3.7, based on a 15x PE multiple for FY25/02 [3][4] Core Views - The company's retail and wholesale sales for FY25Q3 (Sep-Nov) declined by mid-single digits YoY, in line with expectations, but showed sequential improvement compared to FY25Q2 [3] - Online sales outperformed offline, with double-digit growth in online GMV, driven by promotional activities during the period [4] - The company continues to optimize its store structure, with a 4.4% YoY decline in gross sales area and a high-single-digit decline in store count, indicating improved store efficiency [4] - Inventory levels remain healthy, with a stock-to-sales ratio of 4-5 months and new products accounting for 70-80% of inventory [4] - Adidas performed strongly, with high-single-digit revenue growth in Greater China, while Nike is in a transition phase but expected to improve under new leadership [4] Financial Performance - Revenue for FY25/02E is projected at RMB 26,443 million, a decline of 8.6% YoY, with a recovery expected in FY26/02E and FY27/02E [4] - Net profit for FY25/02E is forecasted at RMB 1,339 million, a decline of 39.5% YoY, with a rebound expected in subsequent years [4] - Gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 40% in the coming years, with net margin improving from 5.1% in FY25/02E to 6.9% in FY27/02E [4] - EPS is projected to grow from RMB 0.22 in FY25/02E to RMB 0.33 in FY27/02E [4] Operational Highlights - The company's online direct sales accounted for 40% of total direct sales, reflecting a shift towards digital channels [4] - Inventory turnover days improved to 130 days, indicating better inventory management [12] - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with a dividend yield of 7.85% in FY25/02E, expected to rise to 12.14% in FY27/02E [4] Market Position - The company is the largest retail partner of Nike in China and has a strong partnership with Adidas, which is expected to benefit from Nike's recovery under new leadership [4] - The company is also expanding collaborations with domestic sports brands and other international brands, diversifying its brand portfolio [4]