国君化工|2025年二代/三代制冷剂价格有望保持涨势

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the second-generation refrigerants due to the scheduled quota reductions, indicating potential price elasticity [12] - The report continues to be optimistic about the third-generation refrigerants' market cycle [12] Core Insights - The supply side indicates that the production and usage of HCFCS in China will be reduced by 67.5% and 73.2% respectively by 2025, as per the Ministry of Ecology and Environment [1] - The production quotas for mainstream refrigerants R22, R141b, and R142b will be reduced by 3.28 thousand tons, 1.19 thousand tons, and 0.60 thousand tons respectively compared to 2024 [1] - The demand for R22 remains stable, primarily driven by its use in the maintenance market and new frequency air conditioning systems, suggesting a tightening supply-demand balance that may lead to price increases [1] - The third-generation refrigerants are expected to benefit from a favorable supply-demand structure, driven by high growth in air conditioning production and sales, as well as increasing demand from emerging markets [8] Summary by Sections Second-Generation Refrigerants - The report highlights that the production quotas for R22 will be significantly reduced, which may lead to price increases due to supply constraints [1] - The demand for R22 is stable, with applications in both refrigeration and organic fluorine chemical production [1] Third-Generation Refrigerants - The total quota for third-generation refrigerants (HFCs) is set at 791,900 tons for 2025, with an additional 45,000 tons for R32 [8] - The report emphasizes the continuous growth in air conditioning production and the increasing demand for refrigerants in domestic and overseas markets [8]