国君宏观|美联储鹰派降息,美国股债“双杀”或为短期

Economic Outlook - Powell expresses optimism about the overall strength of the U.S. economy, noting resilient consumer spending despite weak real estate activity[1] - Unemployment rate remains low, although there has been a slight increase[1] Inflation and Interest Rates - Long-term inflation expectations are stubborn, with geopolitical risks hindering inflation reduction efforts[1] - The Fed's recent decision to lower rates by 25 basis points aligns with expectations, but forward guidance for 2025 has been notably downgraded, leading to market volatility[4] - Inflation forecasts for PCE have been revised upward for 2024 and 2025, with 2024 PCE expected at 2.4% and core PCE at 2.8%[4] Market Reactions - The Fed's hawkish stance on future rate cuts has resulted in a short-term decline in both U.S. stocks and bonds, with the 10-year Treasury yield surpassing 4.5% and major stock indices dropping by approximately 3%[4] - The expectation for two rate cuts in 2025 is concentrated in the first half of the year, with potential cuts in March and June[8] Risks and Considerations - The uncertainty surrounding the new government's trade policies, particularly tariffs, poses risks to inflation dynamics and economic forecasts[1][9] - The potential for a "soft landing" in the U.S. economy is anticipated, with CPI inflation expected to range between 2.1% and 3.0% throughout 2025[8]