美国地产2024年10月跟踪：30年抵押贷款固定利率预期上修

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [1] Core Insights - The 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the U.S. is expected to rise, reaching 6.81% as of November 27, 2024, an increase of 73 basis points from the low of 6.08% in September 2024 [1][65] - The housing supply remains tight, with a shortage of approximately 1.5 million homes in the U.S. as of October 2024, despite a slight increase in inventory levels [42] - New home sales are projected to see a marginal increase in 2025, while existing home transactions are expected to grow slightly due to potential refinancing considerations by buyers [1] Summary by Sections Mortgage Rates - The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has increased significantly, impacting buyer sentiment and refinancing considerations [1][65] Housing Supply and Demand - The total inventory of new and existing homes is at 1.86 million units, corresponding to a supply of only 4.7 months, indicating a continued supply-demand imbalance [42] - The new home sales for October 2024 were 610,000 units, a decrease of 9.4% year-on-year and 17.3% month-on-month, primarily due to adverse weather conditions and rising mortgage rates [43] Pricing Trends - The median price of new homes in October 2024 was $437,300, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [43] - The median price of existing homes was $407,200, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.0% [63] Market Dynamics - The new home market's sales share has increased to 14%, the highest since 2008, driven by a tight supply of existing homes [59] - The average days on the market for existing homes has extended to 58 days, indicating a slower sales pace [56]