Nvidia(NVDA) 交银国际证券·2024-12-20 02:28Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on NVIDIA with a Buy rating and a target price of 128.91 [1][2][4][15] Core Thesis - NVIDIA is expected to maintain its dominant position in the AI accelerator chip market, with an estimated 87% market share by 2025 and over 80% market share through at least 2027 [1][11] - The report highlights NVIDIA's CUDA-based solutions as a key competitive advantage, offering flexibility and scalability compared to ASIC alternatives [1][49] - Despite the rise of ASIC solutions, NVIDIA's market leadership is expected to remain intact, with ASIC adoption likely to be gradual and more impactful on competitors like AMD rather than NVIDIA [1][8][9][21] Market Share and Competitive Landscape - NVIDIA is projected to capture 66% of global CoWoS capacity in 2025, enabling the production of over 5.8 million chips, with Blackwell chips expected to surpass Hopper in revenue by CY2Q25 [13][32][55] - The report estimates that NVIDIA's data center revenue will reach 160-240 billion by 2027, significantly lower than NVIDIA's expected revenue [11][23] Financial Projections - Revenue for CY2024 and CY2025 is forecasted at 190.9 billion, respectively, with Non-GAAP EPS of 4.32 [2][13][52] - Gross margins are expected to remain strong, with CY2024 and CY2025 margins projected at 75.6% and 73.6%, respectively [2][13][52] - The report predicts Blackwell will contribute $35 billion in revenue in CY4Q24, with data center demand remaining robust throughout CY2025 [55][56] Valuation and Catalysts - NVIDIA's CY2025E P/E of 39.3x is slightly above its historical average and industry peers, reflecting its strong competitive position and growth prospects [2][18] - Key catalysts for NVIDIA's stock include increased visibility into CY2026 revenue, the rise of C-end GPU business (e.g., supercomputing), and the expansion of generative AI applications [2][13][58] - The report notes that NVIDIA's valuation is in line with peers like Broadcom and AMD, with a CY2025E P/E of 30.3x, positioning it at the industry median [12][51] Industry Trends - The report discusses the ASIC vs. GPU debate, noting that ASIC adoption is driven by slowing algorithm evolution and increasing inference workloads, but NVIDIA's CUDA-based solutions are expected to maintain flexibility and scalability [1][20][49] - CSPs are increasingly adopting ASIC solutions to balance NVIDIA's pricing power and ensure supply chain security, but this trend is expected to have a greater impact on competitors like AMD rather than NVIDIA [46][21] - The AI accelerator chip market is projected to grow significantly, with NVIDIA maintaining a dominant position, while ASIC solutions are expected to capture a smaller share of the market [11][23][50]