平安观日本系列（五）—12月日本央行会议点评：“不确定性”约束加息步伐，日元资产影响几何？

Core Views - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained its policy rate at 0.25% in December 2024, with an 8-1 vote, signaling a dovish stance and no clear commitment to a January rate hike [3][20] - The BOJ's decision was influenced by uncertainties in wage trends, overseas economic conditions, and the next US administration's policies [3][43] - The BOJ's internal review of its monetary policy over the past 25 years suggests that while the large-scale monetary easing since 2013 had positive effects, these effects are diminishing, and future unconventional policies must balance benefits and risks [7] Impact on Yen and Japanese Stocks - The yen is expected to underperform in the short term but may appreciate moderately in the medium term as the US-Japan interest rate differential narrows [4][36] - Japanese stocks may experience short-term volatility but are expected to maintain an upward trend in the medium to long term, supported by Japan's economic growth and corporate earnings [4][57] - The negative impact of yen appreciation on overseas earnings is expected to be limited in 2025, assuming moderate yen appreciation [4][57] BOJ's Policy Dilemma - The BOJ faces a dilemma between the risks of yen depreciation and rising inflation versus the uncertain sustainability of the wage-price positive feedback loop [13][47] - The BOJ is cautious about raising rates too quickly, as seen in the market's reaction to the July 2023 rate hike, which led to a significant stock market correction [23] - The BOJ is closely monitoring wage trends and the transmission of wage increases to prices, with a focus on consumer spending as a key indicator [47][48] Wage and Inflation Trends - Nominal wage growth in Japan has been steadily increasing since the 2024 "Shunto" spring wage negotiations, with actual wage growth turning positive [24][28] - Service inflation remains robust, indicating a relatively smooth transmission of labor costs to prices, although overall CPI growth has been dampened by energy price declines [25][51] - The BOJ expects the wage-price positive feedback loop to strengthen, with inflation gradually rising as output gaps improve and inflation expectations increase [21][51] Future Policy Outlook - The BOJ is expected to raise rates once in Q1 2025 by 25 basis points, with further hikes possible later in the year, potentially reaching 0.75%-1.0% by the end of 2025 [13][51] - The BOJ's future policy decisions will depend on wage trends, economic activity, and price developments, with a focus on achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably [46][51] - Risks to the BOJ's policy include a potential global economic downturn, which could lead to a pause or reversal in rate hikes [51]