UniTTEC(000925) 西南证券·2024-12-20 06:58Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 14.18 CNY over the next six months, based on the current price of 8.23 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from the dual drivers of smart urban rail and low-altitude economy, exploring new opportunities in digital intelligence [1][2]. - The traditional urban rail business is expected to continue benefiting from the renewal and upgrade of urban rail systems, with a significant market potential of 375-560 billion CNY for signal system upgrades by 2030 [7]. - The semiconductor materials capacity expansion is anticipated to benefit from the industry's recovery, with a projected 19.78% year-on-year increase in global semiconductor sales in 2024 [3]. - The low-altitude economy is projected to reach a market size of 6 trillion CNY by 2035, with the company actively developing three major business areas in this sector [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is a leading player in the smart urban rail sector, having established a "1+2+N" development strategy focusing on smart transportation, semiconductor, and digital industry [63][68]. - The company has shifted its focus to smart transportation and semiconductor industries, divesting from energy-saving and environmental protection businesses [64]. 2. Smart Transportation - The smart transportation segment has seen revenue growth from 9.8 billion CNY in 2017 to 25.6 billion CNY in 2021, although it faced challenges in 2022-2023 due to stricter approval requirements for subway projects [71]. - The company achieved a market share increase in urban rail signal systems from 15.2% in 2022 to 20.5% in 2023, with significant new orders in the smart transportation sector [7][71]. 3. Semiconductor Industry - The company is expanding its semiconductor materials production capacity, with projects in Shanxi and Pujiang progressing well, aiming to capitalize on the industry's recovery [3][4]. - The global semiconductor market is expected to see a steady increase in sales, with a projected year-on-year growth of 19.78% in the first three quarters of 2024 [3]. 4. Low-Altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy is gaining traction, with government policies supporting its development, and the company has established a presence in this emerging market [8][88]. - The company is developing a comprehensive low-altitude service model, including smart take-off and landing fields and safety control systems, to capture growth in this sector [8][89]. 5. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are estimated at 2.23 billion CNY, 2.85 billion CNY, and 3.23 billion CNY, with net profits projected to grow significantly [12]. - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate of 12% in revenue and 43% in net profit over the next three years [12].