Yunnan Aluminium (000807) 申万宏源·2024-12-20 07:52Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, citing its leading position in green aluminum production and expected cost reductions in the alumina sector [3]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from improved utilization rates in aluminum production due to favorable water conditions in Yunnan, alongside a gradual realization of its long-term value as carbon taxes increase and aluminum is included in carbon trading markets [3]. - The company plans to distribute its first interim dividend in 2024, with a steadily increasing payout ratio, highlighting its long-term investment value [3]. - Forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at CNY 45.3 billion, CNY 58.6 billion, and CNY 64.2 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11x, 9x, and 8x [3]. Company Overview - The company is a leading integrated green aluminum producer, with annual capacities of 1.4 million tons for alumina, 3.05 million tons for electrolytic aluminum, 1.6 million tons for aluminum processing, and 820,000 tons for carbon products, with over 80% of its power sourced from clean energy [18]. - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of CNY 391.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 31.7%, and a net profit of CNY 38.2 billion, up 52.5% year-on-year, primarily due to increased utilization rates in electrolytic aluminum production [18][56]. Production and Cost Analysis - The company anticipates that improved water conditions in Yunnan will alleviate electricity shortages during dry seasons, enhancing electrolytic aluminum production capacity utilization, with projected production volumes of 2.8 million tons, 2.85 million tons, and 2.85 million tons for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5]. - The expected selling prices for electrolytic aluminum (excluding tax) are CNY 17,876, CNY 18,142, and CNY 18,230 per ton for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5]. - The production costs for electrolytic aluminum are projected to decrease to CNY 15,328, CNY 15,002, and CNY 14,855 per ton over the same period [5]. Market Dynamics - The report suggests that while there are concerns about potential declines in electrolytic aluminum prices due to falling alumina prices, the overall supply-demand balance remains favorable, supported by growth in demand from the electric vehicle and power sectors [6]. - The company’s relatively low self-sufficiency in alumina compared to peers positions it to benefit from declining external alumina costs, enhancing its profit margins [6]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company’s financial health has improved significantly, with a reduction in debt-to-asset ratio from 75.4% in 2018 to 25.6% in 2023, and a substantial increase in cash reserves, reaching CNY 82 billion by the third quarter of 2024 [33][56]. - The report indicates that the company’s net profit margin and return on equity (ROE) are expected to improve, with projected ROE of 15.4%, 17.3%, and 16.8% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [19].