SEMICONJapan实地走访：关注AI芯片和中国半导体国产化新趋势

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the semiconductor industry, indicating an expectation for industry stock indices to outperform benchmarks [12][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights three key trends in the semiconductor industry: TSMC's dominance in advanced processes, the increasing area of AI chips, and the acceleration of supply chain fragmentation due to regulatory policies [15][34][45]. - The semiconductor equipment industry's added value is shifting from lithography to advanced packaging, with back-end equipment benefiting from AI-driven demand [19][54]. Summary by Sections Trend Analysis - Trend 1: TSMC is becoming increasingly dominant in advanced processes, leading to a slowdown in lithography technology competition. Concerns are raised about the potential negative impact on front-end equipment companies like ASML and Tokyo Electron [20][58]. - Trend 2: The area of AI chips is expected to continue expanding, with glass substrate packaging potentially becoming a key technology. The demand for 3D packaging technology is increasing, driven by new applications in AI computing [34][60]. - Trend 3: Regulatory policies are accelerating the fragmentation of the semiconductor supply chain, with a focus on the importance of domestic component production in China. The recent U.S. export control regulations are expected to push Chinese semiconductor equipment companies to enhance their domestic supply capabilities [14][70]. Market Outlook - The report predicts that the global semiconductor equipment market will grow by 8% in 2025, while the Chinese market is expected to decline by 17%. The domestic equipment companies in China are projected to maintain a strong revenue growth of 34% year-on-year [63]. - Japanese investors are showing caution towards the Chinese market, particularly regarding potential updates to semiconductor export control policies [39][30]. Company Insights - Companies such as AGC, Toppan, and Corning are highlighted as key players in the advanced packaging technology space, which is becoming increasingly important in the semiconductor industry [54][61]. - The report notes that the semiconductor equipment supply chain is experiencing disruptions, particularly in Japan, and emphasizes the need for increased domestic production capabilities in China [70].