2025年中国商业银行信用展望—国有银行

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable credit outlook for China's state-owned banks in 2025, supported by their extensive operational networks, stable asset quality, ample liquidity, and strong capital positions [3][10] Core Views - The report highlights that state-owned banks will continue to play a pivotal role in stabilizing the overall credit quality of China's banking sector, despite ongoing pressure from narrowing interest margins [3][10] - The Chinese government's strong support for state-owned banks is expected to remain robust, given their systemic importance and policy functions [10][14] - The report anticipates that the asset quality of state-owned banks will remain stable in 2025, with potential risks mitigated by proactive policy measures and a moderately loose monetary environment [14][55] Key Data and Trends Credit and Asset Growth - In Q3 2024, China's GDP grew by 4.6% year-on-year, with full-year growth expected to reach 4.9% [4] - The total assets of commercial banks grew by 8.0% year-on-year in Q3 2024, while the growth rate of loans and advances slowed to 7.6%, reflecting a shift in credit structure towards corporate loans over retail loans [4][18] - State-owned banks accounted for 54% of total loans and 52% of total deposits as of September 2024, maintaining their dominant position in the banking sector [8] Asset Quality - The average non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of state-owned banks stood at 1.25% in Q3 2024, significantly lower than that of regional banks and slightly below the industry average [25][26] - Corporate loan quality improved, with the NPL ratio for manufacturing loans declining, while real estate-related corporate loans remained under pressure with an NPL ratio of 5% as of June 2024 [51] - Personal loan quality showed signs of deterioration, with the NPL ratio rising to 0.7% by June 2024, driven by increases in mortgage and credit card loan delinquencies [53] Profitability and Interest Margins - The net interest margin (NIM) of state-owned banks narrowed to 1.5% in Q3 2024, below the industry average, due to declining asset yields and sticky deposit costs [56] - State-owned banks' profitability metrics, including return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA), continued to decline, with ROE at 9.6% and ROA at 0.7% in Q3 2024 [59] Capital and Liquidity - The average capital adequacy ratio (CAR) of state-owned banks rose to 18.3% by Q3 2024, significantly higher than the industry average of 15.6% [36][61] - Core Tier 1 capital adequacy for state-owned banks reached 12.5% in Q3 2024, well above regulatory requirements and peer averages [37] - Liquidity indicators for state-owned banks improved, with the loan-to-deposit ratio rising to 84.3% and the liquidity ratio reaching 75.1% in Q3 2024 [66] Policy and Regulatory Environment - The Chinese government's proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy are expected to support economic recovery and stabilize the operating environment for state-owned banks in 2025 [4][14] - State-owned banks are well-positioned to meet the Total Loss-Absorbing Capacity (TLAC) requirements by 2025, with the "Big Four" banks expected to meet the first phase of TLAC requirements without difficulty [39][64]