银行间市场个贷 ABS 超额利差 2024 年第 4 季度 发行利差 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 20Q2 20Q4 21Q2 21Q4 22Q2 22Q4 23Q2 23Q4 24Q2 24Q4 车贷ABS资产端与证券端收益水平 证券加权平均发行利率 资产池加权平均收益率 优先级证券加权平均发行利率 来源：受托报告、CNABS、惠誉博华 消费贷ABS资产端与证券端收益水平 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 20Q2 20Q4 21Q2 21Q4 22Q2 22Q4 23Q2 23Q4 24Q2 24Q4 证券加权平均发行利率 资产池加权平均收益率 优先级证券加权平均发行利率 来源：受托报告、CNABS、惠誉博华 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2-24Q4 RMBS超额利差：发行利差 加权平均发行利差 来源：受托报告、CNABS、惠誉博华 车贷ABS超额利差：发行利差 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 20Q2 20Q4 21Q2 21Q4 2 ...

特别报告 结构融资 资产证券化市场运行报告 2024 年第 4 季度 市场发行情况 0 200 400 600 800 0 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 亿元 各市场发行规模和总单数 信贷ABS发行规模 ABN发行规模 企业ABS发行规模 发行总单数(右轴) 来源：CNABS、惠誉博华 0 20 40 60 0 200 400 600 RMBS 车贷ABS 消费贷ABS 小微ABS NPAS 亿元 信贷ABS 2024年第四季度发行情况 23Q4发行额 24Q4发行额 23Q4发行单数(右轴) 24Q4发行单数(右轴) 来源：CNABS、惠誉博华 ABN 2024年第四季度发行情况 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 100 200 300 400 500 亿元 24Q4发行额 24Q4发行单数(右轴) 来源：CNABS、惠誉博华 企业ABS 2024年第四季度发行情况 《 惠 誉 博 华 银 行 间 市 场 NPAS 指 数 报 告 2024Q4》 《惠誉博华银行间市场个贷 ABS 超额利差报告 2024Q4》 《 惠 誉 博 华 资 产 证 券 化 市 场 运 行 报 告 2024Q ...

指数报告 个贷 ABS 银行间市场个贷 ABS 指数 2024 年第 4 季度 车贷 ABS 0 25 50 75 100 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 惠誉博华银行间市场车贷ABS指数 M2/M3逾期率 笔数（右轴） M2逾期率 M2：3个月移动平均 M3逾期率 M3：3个月移动平均 惠誉博华银行间市场车贷ABS指数 0 25 50 75 100 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% CPR 笔数（右轴） CPR 来源：受托报告、惠誉博华 惠誉博华银行间市场车贷ABS指数 | 项 目 | 24Q4 | 24Q3 | 24Q2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资产池总余 | 2390.5 | 2652.4 | 2958.3 | | 额（亿元） | | | | | M2逾期率 | 0.22 | 0.20 | 0.19 | | 指数（%） | | | | | M3逾期率 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 0.12 | | 指数（%） | | | | | 来源：惠誉博华 | | | | 相关研究 《惠誉博华银行间市场个贷 ABS 指数报告 2024Q3》 《2025 年银行间 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the NPAS industry Core Insights - The NPAS index reflects the recovery performance of various asset-backed securities in the interbank market, indicating a relative level of recovery compared to historical averages [1][2] - The recovery climate for different NPAS categories shows varying trends, with some categories experiencing declines while others maintain stability [8][11][15][21] Summary by Category Mortgage NPAS - Initial asset scale for Q4 2024 is 1220.5 billion, down from 1549.2 billion in Q3 2024 and 1770.7 billion in Q2 2024 - Current recovery climate is at 72.2, with cumulative recovery climate at 82.8, indicating a decline from previous quarters [1] Credit Card NPAS - Initial asset scale for Q4 2024 is 2476.4 billion, down from 2846.7 billion in Q3 2024 - Current recovery climate is at 77.1, with cumulative recovery climate at 70.7, showing a downward trend since Q3 2020 [1][11] Consumer Credit NPAS - Initial asset scale for Q4 2024 is 61.1 billion, significantly reduced from 116.5 billion in Q3 2024 - Current recovery climate is at 96.9, with cumulative recovery climate at 80.4, indicating a relatively stable performance [1][15] Micro Enterprises NPAS: Credit Type - Initial asset scale for Q4 2024 is 306.8 billion, slightly down from 329.7 billion in Q3 2024 - Current recovery climate is at 86.3, with cumulative recovery climate at 86.1, suggesting a stable recovery performance [1][18] Micro Enterprises NPAS: Real Estate Mortgage Type - Initial asset scale for Q4 2024 is 176.5 billion, down from 223.0 billion in Q3 2024 - Current recovery climate is at 99.2, with cumulative recovery climate at 106.2, indicating strong recovery performance [1][21]

惠誉博华 非银行金融机构 金融租赁行业逐渐向平稳发展周期过渡 金融租赁公司逐步迈入新发展周期，监管引导行业规范经营加大公司治理投入 根据银行业协会的数据，金融租赁公司资产规模增速在 2021 年进入 3.7%的低谷后，2022 年及 2023 年持续修复，分别达到 5.6%及 10.5%，2023 年末行业资产规模达 4.18 万亿元。但与此同 时，金融租赁公司的营业收入增速波动下滑，根据惠誉博华从公开渠道获取的 35 家金融租赁公司 样本观察，2022 及 2023 年样本机构合并收入增速分别为 8.8%及 8.4%，该水平低于 2020 年的 17.3%。净利润方面，样本机构自 2020 年以来利润增长持续面临一定压力，虽然 2023 年改善至 18.7%，但仍不及 2019 年增速水平 27.7%。 近年来宏观经济增速的调整以及对于优质投放标的竞争加剧，皆使得金融租赁公司虽然资产规模 增速逐步恢复，但收入及利润增长依然存在一定压力。宏观上适度宽松的货币政策对金融租赁公 司的融资成本改善有益，有利于利润修复，但长期而言行业将逐步向平稳发展周期过渡。另一方 面，监管机构事实上近年来亦在持续推动金融租赁公司转 ...

Core Insights - Fitch Bohua projects that China's raw coal production growth will further slow to 1.0%-1.5% in 2025, corresponding to a production volume of 4.8 billion to 4.82 billion tons, due to demand slowdown, high inventory levels, and declining coal prices [1][7][12] - The overall credit outlook for China's coal mining and washing industry in 2025 is rated as "stable," although there are concerns regarding the debt servicing indicators being in a relatively weak position [1][49] Production and Demand - In 2024, China's raw coal production reached 4.32 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, with significant contributions from major production regions such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang [2][12] - The production capacity utilization rate for the coal mining and washing industry hovered between 71%-73% in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a slowdown in supply efficiency [7][9] - The demand for thermal coal is expected to remain resilient, with growth projected to maintain low single digits, while coking coal consumption may decline further compared to 2024 [1][19][25] Price Trends - Fitch Bohua anticipates that the average port price for Shanxi-produced thermal coal (Q5500) will range between 760-810 RMB/ton in 2025, indicating a decline of 5.3%-11.1% from 2024 [1][31][44] - The price of coking coal is also expected to decrease, potentially at a rate higher than that of thermal coal, due to weak downstream steel demand [1][45][48] Import Dynamics - The growth rate of coal imports in China is expected to significantly decline in 2025, following a record high contribution to total coal supply in 2024, where imports accounted for 10.2% of total supply [12][14] - High inventory levels at ports and the robust domestic production are likely to constrain the growth of coal imports, with port inventories reaching 70.1 million tons by the end of 2024, the highest level since 2019 [14][17] Industry Financials - The coal mining and washing industry reported a revenue of 287.4 billion RMB in the first eleven months of 2024, a decrease of 10.7% year-on-year, with total profits down by 20.8% [49][51] - Despite the anticipated decline in coal prices, the profit margins for coal companies are expected to remain above critical thresholds, providing a safety cushion against potential downturns [49][50]

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable credit outlook for China's state-owned banks in 2025, supported by their extensive operational networks, stable asset quality, ample liquidity, and strong capital positions [3][10] Core Views - The report highlights that state-owned banks will continue to play a pivotal role in stabilizing the overall credit quality of China's banking sector, despite ongoing pressure from narrowing interest margins [3][10] - The Chinese government's strong support for state-owned banks is expected to remain robust, given their systemic importance and policy functions [10][14] - The report anticipates that the asset quality of state-owned banks will remain stable in 2025, with potential risks mitigated by proactive policy measures and a moderately loose monetary environment [14][55] Key Data and Trends Credit and Asset Growth - In Q3 2024, China's GDP grew by 4.6% year-on-year, with full-year growth expected to reach 4.9% [4] - The total assets of commercial banks grew by 8.0% year-on-year in Q3 2024, while the growth rate of loans and advances slowed to 7.6%, reflecting a shift in credit structure towards corporate loans over retail loans [4][18] - State-owned banks accounted for 54% of total loans and 52% of total deposits as of September 2024, maintaining their dominant position in the banking sector [8] Asset Quality - The average non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of state-owned banks stood at 1.25% in Q3 2024, significantly lower than that of regional banks and slightly below the industry average [25][26] - Corporate loan quality improved, with the NPL ratio for manufacturing loans declining, while real estate-related corporate loans remained under pressure with an NPL ratio of 5% as of June 2024 [51] - Personal loan quality showed signs of deterioration, with the NPL ratio rising to 0.7% by June 2024, driven by increases in mortgage and credit card loan delinquencies [53] Profitability and Interest Margins - The net interest margin (NIM) of state-owned banks narrowed to 1.5% in Q3 2024, below the industry average, due to declining asset yields and sticky deposit costs [56] - State-owned banks' profitability metrics, including return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA), continued to decline, with ROE at 9.6% and ROA at 0.7% in Q3 2024 [59] Capital and Liquidity - The average capital adequacy ratio (CAR) of state-owned banks rose to 18.3% by Q3 2024, significantly higher than the industry average of 15.6% [36][61] - Core Tier 1 capital adequacy for state-owned banks reached 12.5% in Q3 2024, well above regulatory requirements and peer averages [37] - Liquidity indicators for state-owned banks improved, with the loan-to-deposit ratio rising to 84.3% and the liquidity ratio reaching 75.1% in Q3 2024 [66] Policy and Regulatory Environment - The Chinese government's proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy are expected to support economic recovery and stabilize the operating environment for state-owned banks in 2025 [4][14] - State-owned banks are well-positioned to meet the Total Loss-Absorbing Capacity (TLAC) requirements by 2025, with the "Big Four" banks expected to meet the first phase of TLAC requirements without difficulty [39][64]

Summary of Huiyu Bohua's 2025 Financial Outlook Seminar Industry Overview - The seminar focused on the aviation transport industry in China, highlighting its recovery since 2023 and projecting growth into 2025 [2][3][5]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Industry Recovery**: The total turnover of China's aviation transport industry dropped to 599 billion tons per kilometer in 2022 but rebounded with a 98.3% increase in 2023, recovering to about 92% of 2019 levels by the end of 2023 [2][3]. - **Passenger Traffic Growth**: From January to October 2023, the number of domestic flights increased by 20.6% compared to 2019, with overall traveler numbers up by more than 15% [3][4]. - **International Flights**: International flights reached 65% of 2019 levels, with significant increases in flights to Asia, Africa, and the Middle East [4][6]. - **Cargo Oil Turnover**: Cargo oil turnover increased by 27% from January to October 2023, with international airlines seeing a 47.3% increase due to strong export support [5][6]. Future Projections - **Domestic Airlines**: Demand for domestic airline travel is expected to improve significantly in 2025, driven by policy benefits and rising disposable income [5][6]. - **International Airlines**: The recovery of international airlines is anticipated to accelerate, with the potential for faster growth than domestic flights due to easing travel restrictions and policy changes [6][7]. - **Supply Constraints**: The supply of aircraft has not met expectations, with a projected average increase in supply dropping to about 2% from 2024 to 2025 [8][9]. Financial Performance - **Profitability Trends**: The aviation industry experienced a loss of over 1,700 billion yuan in 2022, with a projected return to zero profit in 2024 and a forecasted operating income increase of about 6% in 2025 [11][12][13]. - **Ticket Pricing**: Average ticket prices have seen a decline, with a 12% drop in prices from October to November 2023, which may stimulate demand from price-sensitive travelers [11][12]. - **Government Subsidies**: The industry remains highly dependent on government subsidies, which are expected to decline due to reduced local government financial capacity [15][17]. Company Analysis - **Sample Companies**: Seven listed companies were analyzed, accounting for 76% of the industry's income and over 60% of total turnover [13][14]. - **Capacity Increases**: The overall capacity of sample airlines increased by 20.5% in the first three quarters of 2024, with significant growth among major airlines [14][15]. - **Debt Levels**: The total debt of the aviation industry is approximately 790 billion yuan, with over 60% being long-term debt, indicating a high debt burden [16][17]. Conclusion - The overall outlook for the aviation industry in 2025 is positive, with expectations of demand recovery, improved profitability, and a tightening supply-demand gap, despite ongoing challenges such as ticket price pressure and reduced government subsidies [17].

大家好欢迎大家参加魏博华2025年房地产开发行业信用展望的网络研讨会请注意魏博华的本次网络研讨会仅对收邀参与者开放魏博华不提供投资建议包括购买持有或出售证券亦不从事任何的证券发行魏博华在此次直播中所发表的意见有可能在未来发生变化 并受研究报告及会议博法网站所列载之限制以及免责声明的约束本次直播设有问答环节如果在直播过程中您有相关的问题您可以通过QA问答框来进行提交我们会在稍后进行解答同时您也可以通过屏幕下方的相关链接来下载本次网络研讨会的演示文稿及相关的报告 那么我们今天的分享会有包括主要包括三个部分的内容首先我们会对2024年1到10月份房地产行业的一个整体的运行状况来进行一个回顾然后我们会通过对所选的样本公司的一个金额与财务的一个状况来进行分析从而得出我们对于2025年房地产行业的一个信用的展望 那么接下来是第一部分我们对于前十个月以来房地产行业整体的一个运行情况的一个回顾那么首先是销售的部分在我们对于销售在我们对于今年房地产行业销售的一个分析中其实我们是把它分成了两个阶段的就是以九月底的一个房地产的新政作为一个分界线 那么我们会把这两部分相对的来说会看作是两个阶段那么前九个月来看的话就是大家可以看一下就 ...

惠誉博华 热点洞察 惠誉博华月度热点洞察：2024 年 11 月 热点洞察： • 增量政策逐渐显效 10 月经济加快修复 • 2024 年全球系统重要性银行名单公布；四大行第一阶段 TLAC 达标无虞，需持续关注第二阶段缺口变化 • 2024 年年底前是否将发行 2 万亿元再融资专项债置换存 量隐性债务？短期内发行2万亿元再融资专项债或将给债 市带来哪些影响？ • 人大常委会化债举措出台，地方政府及城投企业债务压 力与风险走向何方？ • 《收费公路管理条例》有望于本年内出台，收费期限可 能延长 • 本月中旬由财政部与税务总局联合发布的调整出口退税 政策对铝企业绩有何影响？ 惠誉博华 分析师 服务业生产加快：10 月份服务业生产指数同比增长 6.3%，增速比 上月加快 1.2 个百分点，连续两个月加快，这也是今年以来服务业 生产指数的最高增速。其中，在利好政策刺激下，股票市场短期大 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------- ...