半导体自主可控是年末科技行情的重要方向

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the semiconductor industry, with expectations of recovery and growth in 2024, particularly driven by storage products and AI-related demand [29][42][41]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is projected to experience a significant recovery in 2024, with global sales expected to reach between $588.36 billion and $632.8 billion, reflecting growth rates of approximately 13.1% to 20.2% [30][32][34]. - The report highlights that the storage segment is anticipated to be a key driver of growth, with a projected increase of 44.8% in 2024 [34]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic semiconductor technology development in China, particularly in response to ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply chain challenges [41][42]. Summary by Sections Semiconductor Industry Overview - The semiconductor sales in October 2024 reached $56.88 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 22.1% and a month-on-month growth of 4.1% [34]. - The report notes that the semiconductor industry is recovering from a downturn, with several major institutions revising their sales forecasts upward for 2024 [30][34]. Market Segmentation - The report identifies that the fastest-growing segments in 2024 will be storage, logic, and processors, with growth rates of 44.8%, 9.6%, and 7.0% respectively [34]. - The report also mentions that the demand for AI-related products is expected to significantly boost the semiconductor market [29][41]. Supply Chain and Inventory - The report indicates that overall chip delivery times are stabilizing, with inventory levels remaining high in certain categories, impacting market dynamics [23][29]. - It highlights that while consumer orders are slowing, automotive and industrial orders have not shown improvement, leading to high inventory levels [30][29]. Company Performance and Expectations - The report outlines that major semiconductor companies are maintaining a cautious but optimistic outlook for the second half of 2024, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region [29][30]. - It notes that companies like Intel, AMD, and NVIDIA are experiencing varied order trends, with some seeing stable or increasing orders while others face declines [21][30].