2024年11月家禽销售跟踪：白鸡苗价上涨继续，黄鸡价格下跌

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a continued increase in broiler chick prices while yellow chicken prices have declined, indicating a mixed market performance [3][45] - The overall market is experiencing an oversupply situation, leading to a downward trend in chicken prices, particularly as year-end demand weakens [3][32] Summary by Sections Broiler Chick Market - In November 2024, the average price of broiler chicks in major production areas was 4.27 CNY per chick, a month-on-month increase of 2.7% [16][24] - Major companies like Yisheng and Minhe reported average prices of 5.3 CNY and 4.4 CNY per chick, respectively, with increases of 8.0% and 5.3% month-on-month [16][24] Chicken Meat Market - The average price of chicken meat in November 2024 was 9,270 CNY per ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.9% [16][24] - Companies such as Shennong and Xiantan reported sales prices of 9,751 CNY and 9,661 CNY per ton, with month-on-month increases of 0.8% and 3.4% respectively [16][24] Sales Performance - In November 2024, Wens, Lihua, and Xiangjia sold 110.884 million, 45.316 million, and 3.851 million broilers, with year-on-year changes of +3.6%, +14.3%, and -8.5% respectively [29] - The average selling prices for these companies were 12.7 CNY/kg, 12.2 CNY/kg, and 10.5 CNY/kg, showing significant month-on-month declines [29] Parent Stock and Supply - The average stock of parent breeding chickens in production was 1.282 million sets in November 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.1% [49] - The average stock of backup parent breeding chickens was 890,000 sets, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.3% [49] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong self-sourced breeding capabilities and those involved in both breeding and food processing, such as Shennong Development [17][36] - For yellow chicken, the report notes that overall production capacity is low but undergoing structural optimization, recommending attention to seasonal price changes and the correlation with pork prices [17][36] - For egg chick sales, the report indicates a significant price recovery, highlighting companies like Xiaoming as having price elasticity [17][36]