平安观日本系列（五）：12月日本央行会议点评：“不确定性”约束加息步伐，日元资产影响几何？

Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained the policy interest rate at 0.25% with an 8-1 voting result, aligning with market expectations but diverging from anticipated hawkish statements[12] - The BOJ's decision reflects a cautious approach due to uncertainties in wage trends and the global economy, particularly regarding the upcoming U.S. government policies[13] - The BOJ is expected to consider a potential rate hike of 25 basis points in Q1 2025, with a target range for the year-end rate between 0.75% and 1.0%[14] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Japan's nominal wage growth has shown steady improvement, with a notable increase during the summer bonus period, although real wage growth remains at 0% as of October[35] - Consumer spending growth has slowed since May, indicating a potential need for further wage increases to support consumption[36] - The service inflation rate has remained stable, suggesting a smooth transmission of labor costs to consumer prices, with the CPI showing a rebound to 2.6% in November[37] Group 3: Market Implications - The Japanese yen is expected to experience short-term depreciation but may appreciate moderately in the medium term as the Fed lowers rates and the BOJ continues to raise rates[15] - The Japanese stock market is likely to remain volatile in the short term but has long-term investment value due to expected economic growth and corporate profitability[60] - Risks include potential unexpected inflation, economic downturns, and geopolitical tensions that could impact monetary policy decisions[65]