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建筑材料行业11月月报:淡季将至需求下行,关注供给侧积极变化
华龙证券·2024-12-20 10:42

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the building materials industry, indicating potential recovery in industry valuation due to favorable policies in real estate and infrastructure [1][22]. Core Insights - The cement industry is experiencing a decline in demand, with a year-on-year decrease of approximately 10.1% in cumulative production from January to November 2024, totaling 1.671 billion tons [6][22]. - The average price of cement in November was 425.23 yuan per ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 17.83 yuan per ton, supported by peak production adjustments and industry self-discipline measures [26][42]. - The glass industry is facing a potential downturn as demand is expected to shrink due to seasonal factors, with manufacturers likely to reduce prices to alleviate inventory pressure [58][66]. - The fiberglass sector is seeing price stabilization and potential profitability improvements due to recent price adjustments by leading companies, with a focus on high-end applications driving demand growth [38][60]. Cement Industry Summary - The cement market is under pressure with a 4% month-on-month decline in average shipment rates in November, and a year-on-year decrease of 7% [26][42]. - Regional demand varies, with the North experiencing instability due to environmental regulations, while the South remains relatively stable [26][42]. - Key companies to watch include Shangfeng Cement, Huaxin Cement, and Conch Cement, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated recovery in industry valuation [26][42]. Glass Industry Summary - The glass market is expected to face challenges as demand weakens, particularly in northern regions due to weather conditions and operational halts [58][66]. - The inventory of float glass is projected to increase, leading to price competition among regions [58][66]. - Key players in the glass sector include Qibin Group and Jinjing Technology, which may present short-term opportunities [58][66]. Fiberglass Industry Summary - The fiberglass industry is experiencing a slight increase in market conditions, with price adjustments expected to enhance profitability [38][60]. - Demand from the automotive sector, particularly for new energy vehicles, is robust, with production reaching 1.574 million units in November, a year-on-year increase of 51.1% [60][62]. - Key companies to monitor include China Jushi and Zhongcai Technology, which are positioned to capitalize on market trends [38][60]. Consumer Building Materials Summary - Companies in the consumer building materials sector are actively pursuing channel transformations and exploring overseas markets for growth [63][80]. - Recent favorable policies are anticipated to boost industry valuations, with recommended stocks including Weixing New Materials, Beixin Building Materials, and Sankeshu [63][80].