平安观日本系列（五）—12月日本央行会议点评“不确定性”约束加息步伐，日元资产影响几何？

Monetary Policy Insights - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to maintain the policy interest rate at 0.25% with an 8-1 vote, aligning with market expectations but diverging from anticipated hawkish signals[28] - The BOJ's stance remains dovish, with no strong affirmation for a rate hike in January, primarily due to uncertainties regarding wage trends and overseas economic conditions[3] Economic Conditions - The BOJ is caught in a dilemma between rising inflation risks and the uncertain sustainability of wage-price dynamics, leading to a cautious approach in adjusting rates[4] - Nominal wage growth in Japan has shown steady improvement, with actual wage growth nearing zero, indicating a gradual upward trend[25] Future Projections - The BOJ is expected to potentially raise rates by 25 basis points in the first quarter of 2025, with a year-end target range of 0.75%-1.0%[25] - The upcoming "Shunto" wage negotiations in March 2025 are critical for determining the sustainability of the wage-inflation cycle[50] Market Impacts - The Japanese yen is likely to experience short-term depreciation but may appreciate moderately in the medium term as the Fed lowers rates and the BOJ continues its tightening[5] - The Japanese stock market is anticipated to remain volatile in the short term, with long-term investment value supported by ongoing economic growth and corporate profitability[68] Risks and Considerations - Key risks include unexpected inflation, economic downturns, and geopolitical tensions that could impact monetary policy decisions[69]