2025年计算机行业策略报告：“AI+应用”百花齐放，新质生产力前景广阔

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the computer industry [1] Core Insights - The computer industry has shown excellent performance in the second half of the year, presenting numerous investment opportunities. As of December 16, 2024, the computer (Shenwan) index has increased by 11.88%, ranking 11th among Shenwan industry indices. The sector has demonstrated resilience amid market fluctuations, driven by advancements in AI technologies and domestic substitution trends [3][64][75] - The AI large model industry has experienced explosive growth over the past two years, with significant investments leading to substantial achievements. The foundational layer, represented by chips, has seen early performance realization, while the application layer is expected to catch up. AI Agents are anticipated to lead innovation in the application layer [4][98] - The development of new productive forces is accelerating, driven by policies that support emerging sectors. The digital economy is witnessing explosive data growth, with new technologies like big data, cloud computing, and AI becoming key production factors that reshape the global economic structure [5][86] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The computer (Shenwan) sector's revenue reached 858.14 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 6.18%. However, net profit declined by 31.18% to 17.91 billion yuan [78] - The sector's gross profit margin was approximately 25.24%, down 2.09 percentage points from the previous year, while the net profit margin was 2.09%, a decrease of 0.77 percentage points [69] AI Industry Development - AI chips are crucial for the foundational layer, with GPU technology dominating the market, accounting for nearly 90% of the AI chip market share in China as of 2022. The demand for AI chips is driven by the high computational requirements of AI applications [89][92] - The application layer of AI is expected to flourish, with various sectors such as consumer services, industrial applications, and public services poised for growth. The report anticipates that the application layer will begin to realize its performance in the coming years [98][100] Policy and Market Dynamics - Government policies have played a significant role in promoting the rapid development of the AI large model industry. Continuous policy support is expected to drive further growth and investment in this sector [86][88] - The domestic substitution trend is gaining momentum, with the report highlighting the potential for accelerated growth in the domestic innovation industry, particularly in the context of low-altitude economy and data elements [5][120]