华金宏观·双循环周报（第87期）：日英央行按兵不动，无力扭转汇率跳水趋势

Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The Bank of England decided to maintain the policy rate at 4.75%, despite a slight increase in the overall CPI to 2.6% in November, reflecting concerns over economic downturn[77] - The Bank of Japan also kept its policy rate unchanged, with an 8:1 vote, amidst uncertainty regarding the economic outlook and inflation trends[78] Group 2: Currency and Economic Impact - The Japanese yen depreciated significantly, nearing the 160 JPY/USD mark, indicating potential failure of previous currency interventions by the Bank of Japan[11] - The USD index surpassed 108, driven by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and cautious outlooks from the Bank of England and Bank of Japan[32] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The UK manufacturing PMI fell to 47.3, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline, highlighting weaknesses in both domestic and global economic factors[77] - Japan's core inflation remains uncertain, with officials expressing concerns over the volatility of the yen and its impact on prices[78] Group 4: Future Projections - The USD index is projected to rise to 110-115 by the end of 2025, potentially exerting downward pressure on non-USD currencies, including the RMB[32] - The monetary policy for the upcoming year is expected to remain "moderately loose," with anticipated reductions in LPR and reserve requirements to ensure adequate liquidity[32]