银行业11月金融数据点评：居民中长贷改善，化债资金沉淀推升M1

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market" [2][5][26] Core Viewpoints - The financial data for November shows overall weakness, with new RMB loans increasing by 580 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 510 billion. The short-term loans and bill financing decreased significantly, while medium to long-term loans increased, indicating a gradual improvement in the housing market policies [4][12][26] - The M1 growth rate decreased by 3.7% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed compared to the previous month, suggesting a potential stabilization in liquidity due to improved real estate sales and the issuance of replacement bonds [13][22][26] - The report emphasizes that the focus of policy will be on stabilizing growth, which is expected to lead to a rebound in social financing and M2 growth in 2025, supported by moderately loose monetary policy and proactive fiscal measures [5][26] Summary by Sections Financial Data Overview - In November, the total RMB loans increased by 580 billion, with short-term loans decreasing by 370 billion and medium to long-term loans increasing by 3000 billion, reflecting a shift in consumer demand and the impact of previous real estate policies [4][17][26] - The total RMB loan balance reached 254.68 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 7.72% [12][15] M1 and M2 Analysis - M1 decreased by 3.7% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than the previous month, indicating potential liquidity stabilization [13][22][26] - M2 growth rate was 7.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by a cooling capital market and increased government bond issuance [22][26] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on state-owned banks with stable earnings and high dividends, such as China Construction Bank, while keeping an eye on core assets like China Merchants Bank and Ningbo Bank if economic expectations improve [5][26]