美容护理行业点评：11月化妆品类社零同比回落，期待政策持续发力

Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "In Line with the Market" for December 2024 [6] Core Views - The cosmetics category experienced a significant year-on-year decline in retail sales in November, with a drop of 26.4% [5][8] - The decline is attributed to the early start of the Double 11 shopping festival, which shifted some online purchases to October, and a high base effect from the previous year [9] - Despite the November decline, the combined retail sales of cosmetics for October and November exceeded 90 billion yuan, the highest in the past five years, showing a recovery trend with a year-on-year increase of 4.18% [10] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the industry, expecting consumer confidence to continue recovering with stronger consumption-boosting policies [10] Key Stocks Analysis - Proya (珀莱雅): - 2023 EPS: 3.01 yuan, PE: 30.02x - 2024E EPS: 3.82 yuan, PE: 23.66x - 2025E EPS: 4.75 yuan, PE: 19.03x - Rating: Buy [3] - Aimeike (爱美客): - 2023 EPS: 6.14 yuan, PE: 33.56x - 2024E EPS: 6.93 yuan, PE: 29.73x - 2025E EPS: 7.83 yuan, PE: 26.32x - Rating: Buy [3] - Runben (润本股份): - 2023 EPS: 0.56 yuan, PE: 42.50x - 2024E EPS: 0.73 yuan, PE: 32.60x - 2025E EPS: 0.91 yuan, PE: 26.15x - Rating: Buy [3] Industry Performance - The beauty and personal care industry underperformed the CSI 300 index in the short term, with a 1-month return of 1.61% compared to the CSI 300's -0.68% [20] - Over a 12-month period, the industry returned -2.41%, while the CSI 300 returned 17.97% [20] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with strong operational capabilities and a multi-brand strategy, such as Proya [10] - Pay attention to niche market leaders like Runben, which is expected to see rapid new product launches in Q4 [10] - Consider compliant medical beauty leaders like Aimeike, which have strong barriers to entry and high growth certainty [10]