2025年度策略报告：寒潮未尽 春山可望

Key Policy Insights - The GDP growth target for 2025 is likely to remain at around 5%, consistent with 2024, as decision-makers aim to convey confidence in stabilizing growth despite challenges such as the impact of Trump [2][34] - Key policy focuses include boosting consumption, improving social welfare, supporting employment for vulnerable groups, and enhancing family income and consumption willingness [3][34] - The government plans to promote technological innovation and new productive forces, aiming to restore business confidence and improve the business environment [3][34] Fiscal Policy Overview - The broad deficit rate is expected to rise from 6.1% in 2024 to 6.9% in 2025, with significant increases in local government debt replacement and special bond funding [10][11] - Fiscal policies will focus on alleviating local fiscal difficulties, injecting capital into state-owned banks, stabilizing the real estate market, and ensuring social welfare [11][32] - Direct transfers to households may be limited, but policies aimed at stimulating consumption and alleviating deflationary pressures are anticipated [12][32] Economic Challenges and Responses - The economy faces significant deflationary pressures, with weak consumer demand and overcapacity exacerbating the situation [46] - The government recognizes the need for comprehensive policies to combat deflation, similar to Japan's historical experiences [47] - Structural issues such as aging population and urban-rural disparities are contributing to economic challenges, necessitating targeted policy responses [50][51] Market and Investment Outlook - The macroeconomic policy is shifting towards a more accommodative stance, with expectations of lower reserve requirements and interest rates to enhance liquidity [39][34] - The focus on stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, along with promoting consumption and innovation, is expected to create a more favorable investment environment [26][34] - The anticipated recovery in consumer demand, particularly in sectors like real estate and durable goods, may signal a positive trend for market performance in the coming year [27][34]