挖掘消费空间系列一：提振消费：5个方向与17个抓手

Consumption Weakness Analysis - The "wage-GDP" growth gap has declined, impacting consumption, with the gap influenced by the "service-industry" growth gap[90][94] - Wealth effects should not be underestimated, while excess savings should not be overestimated, as asset price declines affect consumption through income, related consumption, and cash flow paths[91][117] - Service consumption demand is under greater pressure compared to previous low inflation periods, with the service sector's GDP deflator experiencing its first-ever decline[92][147] - Youth consumption has slowed significantly, contributing to the overall drag on consumption growth, with youth households previously contributing 55% of consumption growth[93][157] Policy Recommendations to Boost Consumption - Direct consumption subsidies, such as "trade-in" programs and service consumption vouchers, are the most likely short-term policies to be implemented[162][168] - Specific income-boosting measures for targeted groups, including fertility subsidies for first marriages and births, and increasing unemployment insurance benefits[162][182] - Social security subsidies, such as raising basic pensions for urban and rural residents and increasing fiscal subsidies for resident medical insurance contributions[162][189][192] - Supply-side reforms for service consumption, focusing on increasing the quantity of basic livelihood services and improving the quality of enjoyment-type services[162][196][198] - Deepening reforms to address systemic constraints on consumption, including stabilizing the property and stock markets, transitioning from industrial to service-based economies, and shifting public expenditure from investment to consumption[162][210][211][212] Risks and Challenges - Accelerated implementation of reform policies may lead to unexpected effects, while insufficient stimulus and subsidy measures may result in short-term policy underperformance[5][246] - External demand fluctuations due to U.S. tariff increases could lead to changes in domestic policy responses[5][246]