钢铁产能置换办法正在修订，供给变革有望加速钢铁

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Positive" [28][27] Core Insights - The steel industry is currently facing significant supply-demand imbalances, leading to overall profit declines. However, with the implementation of various "stabilization growth" policies, steel demand is expected to remain stable or even slightly increase due to support from real estate stabilization, steady infrastructure investment, ongoing manufacturing development, and high steel exports. Conversely, supply is expected to tighten under anticipated control policies, leading to a generally stable supply-demand situation in the steel industry [28][27] - The report highlights that the steel industry's structural opportunities remain, particularly for high-margin special steel companies and leading steel enterprises with strong cost control and scale effects, which may see valuation recovery opportunities in the future [28][27] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The steel sector declined by 2.71% this week, underperforming the broader market, with specific declines in special steel (down 4.15%), long products (down 5.36%), and flat products (down 1.57%) [33][19] - The average daily pig iron output as of December 20 was 2.2941 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 3.06 thousand tons, but a year-on-year increase of 2.77% [34][34] - The five major steel product categories produced 7.476 million tons as of December 20, a week-on-week decrease of 11.37 thousand tons, or 1.50% [35][35] Inventory and Prices - As of December 20, the social inventory of the five major steel products was 7.678 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 8.31 thousand tons, or 1.07%, and a year-on-year decrease of 11.19% [40][40] - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel prices was 3,639.4 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 42.28 yuan/ton, or 1.15%, and a year-on-year decrease of 14.10% [28][28] - The comprehensive index for special steel prices was 6,789.0 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 9.93 yuan/ton, or 0.15%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.99% [28][28] Profitability - As of December 20, the profit per ton for rebar produced via blast furnace was -177.54 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.4 yuan/ton, or 1.40% [46][46] - The profit per ton for rebar produced via electric arc furnace was -225.48 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 2.1 yuan/ton, or 0.94% [46][46] - The profitability rate for 247 steel enterprises was 48.48%, a week-on-week increase of 0.4 percentage points [46][46] Demand - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 3.242 million square meters as of December 15, a week-on-week increase of 61.2 thousand square meters [23][23] - The consumption of the five major steel products was 8.707 million tons as of December 20, a week-on-week decrease of 11.00 thousand tons, or 1.25% [28][28]