有色金属行业跟踪周报：美联储鹰派降息大幅削减25年利率下行空间，有色金属价格震荡弱势运行

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a decline of 3.09% during the week of December 16-20, ranking in the middle among all primary industries. Precious metals fell by 5.67%, industrial metals by 3.47%, and energy metals by 3.16%, while metal new materials increased by 2.32% [1][69] - The industrial metals market is under pressure due to seasonal demand decline and hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve, which significantly reduced the downward space for interest rates over the next 25 years. This has led to a general decline in industrial metal prices, necessitating further observation of economic prospects and demand changes [1][102] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to experience continued high volatility in the short term, with potential upward movement following a period of adjustment [1][3] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.70%, with the non-ferrous metals sector down 3.09%, underperforming the index by 2.39 percentage points [69] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has led to a significant increase in the US dollar index by 0.8%, impacting the prices of industrial metals negatively [3][102] 2. Industrial Metals - Copper prices are under pressure, with LME copper at $8,944 per ton, down 1.24% week-on-week, and SHFE copper at ¥73,820 per ton, down 1.30% [2][107] - Aluminum prices are also declining, with LME aluminum at $2,542 per ton, down 2.79%, and SHFE aluminum at ¥19,975 per ton, down 1.84% [12][87] - Zinc inventories have decreased, but prices have also fallen, indicating a mixed market response [89][113] 3. Precious Metals - Gold prices have adjusted, with COMEX gold closing at $2,640.50 per ounce, down 0.95%, and SHFE gold at ¥613.94 per gram, down 1.86% [3][94] - The market sentiment remains low, but there is potential for a rebound in gold prices following the current volatility [3][94] 4. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side for copper shows stable import prices, while domestic production is expected to decline slightly in the coming months [2][107] - The aluminum sector is facing production cuts due to cost pressures, particularly in regions like Guangxi and Sichuan [12][87] - Demand for industrial metals is weakening as the year-end approaches, particularly in consumer electronics, while construction-related demand remains stable [2][107]