食品饮料2025年投资策略：梯次探底迎共振，蛇年见龙在田

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight rating on the food and beverage sector, suggesting a positive outlook for 2025 [1] Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to benefit from a dual-cycle resonance of industrial and macroeconomic cycles, with a bottoming-out trend across sub-sectors and some already showing signs of recovery [1][2] - The liquor sector is anticipated to bottom out between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025, with more positive performance expected in Q2 2025 [1] - Snacks and high-growth beverage segments are likely to continue their strong performance, with some sub-sectors leading the recovery [1][2] Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is expected to bottom out in H2 2024 and stabilize in H1 2025, with demand likely to recover during the Spring Festival in 2025 [22][128] - High-end liquor demand is expected to recover moderately, while mid-to-high-end liquor (100-300 RMB) will remain resilient and continue to drive revenue growth for liquor companies [22][128] - Inventory and pricing pressures are expected to ease as demand recovers, with some companies like Shanxi Fenjiu and Yingjia Gongjiu showing better inventory management and revenue stability [110][158] Mass Market Products - The mass market products sector is experiencing a gradient bottoming-out, with some sub-sectors like snacks and seasonings leading the recovery [2][162] - Snacks: The snack sector remains highly competitive, with channel-driven companies growing faster. Cost reductions and scale growth have improved profitability for most companies [2] - Seasonings: The seasoning sector is expected to rebound as catering demand recovers and cost benefits continue. Leading companies like Haitian Flavoring have shown strong performance [2][196] - Soft Drinks: The soft drink sector is highly differentiated, with traditional beverage companies struggling to grow revenue. However, energy drink leader Dongpeng Beverage continues to outperform expectations [2][213] - Dairy: The dairy sector faces oversupply issues, but supply-demand dynamics are expected to improve in 2025 as upstream supply decreases and downstream demand recovers [2][187] Investment Recommendations - For the liquor sector, the report recommends companies with balanced product portfolios, high visibility in earnings growth, and early inventory risk clearance, such as Shanxi Fenjiu, Yingjia Gongjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao [23][158] - In the mass market products sector, the report highlights Dongpeng Beverage, Anjoy Food, and Yili Group as top picks. It also recommends companies in the catering supply chain and seasoning sectors, such as Baoli Food and Tianwei Food [23] - The snack sector is expected to remain a leading growth area in 2025, with recommendations for Three Squirrels, Wanchen Group, and Yanjin Shop [23] Key Data and Trends - The liquor sector's revenue growth is expected to stabilize in 2025, with high-end liquor demand recovering moderately and mid-to-high-end liquor remaining resilient [22][128] - The snack sector continues to grow rapidly, with channel-driven companies outperforming. Cost reductions and scale growth have improved profitability [2] - The seasoning sector is expected to benefit from recovering catering demand and continued cost benefits, with leading companies like Haitian Flavoring showing strong performance [2][196] - The dairy sector is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics in 2025, with upstream supply decreasing and downstream demand recovering [2][187]