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Industry Overview - The US and its allies have imposed stricter semiconductor export controls on China, targeting advanced logic processes, memory chips, and high-performance chip technologies [89][90][91] - Japan and the Netherlands have followed the US in restricting semiconductor equipment exports to China, particularly in areas like EUV lithography and etching equipment [89][95][122] - China has shifted its semiconductor equipment imports from the US and Netherlands to Japan and Singapore, with significant declines in imports of key equipment like CVD and lithography machines [102][108][111] Company Analysis - Northern Huachuang (002371 CH) - Northern Huachuang is expected to see strong revenue growth in 2025 driven by new equipment models and increased domestic substitution [33][35] - The company's ICP and CCP etching equipment, as well as CVD products, are expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth in 2025-2026 [36] - Despite being added to the US Entity List in December 2024, the impact on Northern Huachuang is expected to be limited due to its gradual shift to domestically produced components [1][35] - The company's 3Q24 gross margin reached 42.3%, up 5.89% YoY, driven by improved manufacturing efficiency and higher-margin product mix [1] - Northern Huachuang's target price was raised to RMB 491.00, with a "Buy" rating maintained [35][37] Company Analysis - AMEC (688012 CH) - AMEC's new orders in 9M24 grew 52% YoY to RMB 7.64 billion, with etching equipment orders up 54.7% to RMB 6.25 billion [56][69] - The company's LPCVD equipment achieved its first revenue of RMB 28 million in 9M24, with potential for cross-selling opportunities [56][69] - AMEC's 3Q24 gross margin was 43.7%, down 2% YoY, but is expected to improve in 2025 due to higher-margin products and domestic component substitution [70] - The target price for AMEC was raised to RMB 276.00, with a "Buy" rating maintained [70][68] Company Analysis - Kingsemi (688037 CH) - Kingsemi's 3Q24 gross margin improved to 46.2%, up 5.1% YoY, driven by cost reductions from domestic component substitution and strong performance in advanced packaging equipment [14] - However, the company's 3Q24 net profit fell 63% YoY to RMB 31 million due to higher R&D and equity incentive expenses [14] - Kingsemi's target price was lowered to RMB 95.00, with a "Hold" rating maintained [13][14] Key Risks - Downstream demand may fall short of expectations, potentially delaying semiconductor fab investments and reducing orders for equipment manufacturers [63][103] - Further US restrictions on China's semiconductor industry could impact equipment companies' operations and product shipments [22][63] - Intensifying competition in the semiconductor equipment sector, particularly from domestic manufacturers, could pressure profit margins [7][63] Investment Recommendations - AMEC is the top pick in the semiconductor equipment sector, with strong growth potential in 2025-2026 [81][101] - Northern Huachuang is recommended as a long-term beneficiary of domestic substitution trends [81][101] - Kingsemi is advised to be approached with caution due to its ongoing operational adjustments [81][101]