煤炭行业定期报告：供给有望边际减少，煤价已至底部区域

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal industry [2]. Core Views - The coal price has unexpectedly declined due to high temperatures and excessive imports leading to inventory accumulation, but there may be support near long-term contract price limits as marginal supply could shrink [1][4]. - The current macroeconomic environment is weak, but coal demand remains resilient due to continuous power generation growth, suggesting that coal prices may stabilize at high levels [1][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong resource endowments, high dividend yields, and potential for improved production and sales [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - As of December 20, 2024, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal closing price is 767 CNY/ton, down 23 CNY/ton (-2.9%) week-on-week [1]. - The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia is 83.7%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points week-on-week [1]. 2. Thermal Coal - The report notes a significant increase in daily coal consumption at power plants, with a slight decrease in inventories at power plants and ports [1]. - Methanol and urea operating rates have slightly decreased but remain at historically high levels, with methanol at 85.6% (-1.8% week-on-week) and urea at 80.2% (-2.2% week-on-week) [1]. 3. Coking Coal - The price of coking coal at the Jing Tang Port is 1610 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton (-0.6%) [1]. - The report indicates that the current season is a low production period, with a slight decrease in iron output and a minor increase in coal and coke inventories at sample steel mills [1]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with excellent resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy [1]. - It also highlights companies benefiting from coal-electricity integration models, such as Xinji Energy and Shaanxi Energy, and those with production growth potential like Shanxi Coal International and Yanzhou Coal Mining [1].