策略周评20241222：岁末年初有哪些季节性效应？

Market Trends - February has the highest probability of market rise at 76%, with average and median gains of 4.3% and 3.2% respectively, making it the best month for spring rallies[1] - The "Spring Fervor" effect is evident in A-shares from January to March, with small-cap growth stocks outperforming with an average return of 18.9% over the past 10 years[3] - In 2024, small-cap growth stocks surged by 26.5% in February, significantly outperforming other style indices[3] Capital Flows - Northbound capital inflows averaged 43.2 billion yuan in January from 2016 to 2023, with new equity funds and insurance capital inflows averaging 103.1 billion yuan and 50.7 billion yuan respectively, the highest levels of the year[4] - The central bank typically increases open market operations in December and January to alleviate liquidity pressure, but the market's trading activity remains low with an average daily turnover rate of 2.7% in January[19] Sector Performance - TMT sectors (Computer, Communication, Media, Electronics) have shown strong performance during the Spring Fervor period, with average gains of 22.7%, 21.0%, 19.27%, and 18.3% respectively over the past 10 years[18] - In years of economic improvement, real estate and consumer sectors lead, such as in 2018 and 2019 when real estate and cyclical consumption outperformed[18] Policy and Economic Expectations - January is a key period for economic data and earnings disclosures, while February to mid-March is a vacuum period for data, leading to increased risk appetite and policy anticipation[21] - The 2024 Spring Fervor is expected to be driven by liquidity, with potential rate cuts and RRR reductions in Q1, supporting a balanced market style between small-cap tech growth and cyclical sectors[21]