2025年通信行业投资策略：进击的光通信

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight rating for the communication industry, particularly focusing on the optical communication sector [32] Core Views - The optical communication industry is expected to remain highly prosperous in 2025, driven by strong demand and rapid technological advancements [8] - Key themes for 2025 include overseas expansion, new product launches, and capacity expansion [8] - The report highlights the potential of AEC (Active Electrical Cable) and LPO (Linear Pluggable Optics) as emerging solutions in short-distance scenarios [3][59] - Silicon photonics is expected to enter a significant growth phase by 2025, with CW laser-based silicon photonics becoming mainstream [7][45] - CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) and OIO (Optical I/O) are identified as key future technologies, with CPO offering significant power efficiency improvements over traditional solutions [91][138] Key Technology Trends Short-Distance Solutions - AEC is highlighted as a cost-effective and reliable solution for short-distance data center interconnects, with a focus on 400G, 800G, and 1.6T products [59][61] - LPO is positioned as a potential dark horse in short-distance interconnects due to its lower power consumption and cost advantages, with major players like Inphi and Broadcom driving adoption [51][57] Silicon Photonics - Silicon photonics is expected to see significant growth by 2025, driven by supply constraints in EML lasers and the need for higher data rates [7][45] - Major players like Infinera and Lumentum are expected to ramp up silicon photonics production, with Infinera already planning to ship silicon photonics-based modules in 2025 [26] CPO and OIO - CPO is identified as a key technology for reducing power consumption and improving integration in data centers, with Broadcom leading the way in CPO solutions [91][95] - OIO represents the next frontier in optical communication, with potential applications in chip-level interconnects, though it remains a longer-term prospect [138][174] Market and Competitive Landscape - The report emphasizes the headwinds in the optical communication market, with leading companies like Infinera, New H3C, and TFC benefiting from their strong supply chains and customer relationships [38] - The competitive landscape is expected to favor overseas expansion and new product development, with Infinera and New H3C leading the charge [38] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on North American optical communication companies, including Infinera, New H3C, TFC, and TFC, while also keeping an eye on domestic players like Accelink and HG Tech [8][176] - Silicon photonics and optical interconnects are highlighted as key areas for investment, with Infinera and TFC being the top picks [176][177] Key Companies and Products - Infinera: Leading in silicon photonics and CPO solutions, with plans to ship silicon photonics-based modules in 2025 [26][176] - New H3C: Strong in AEC and LPO solutions, with a focus on short-distance interconnects [61][150] - TFC: A key player in optical interconnects, with a strong presence in North America [177] - Accelink and HG Tech: Domestic players with potential in the optical communication market [176]