有色金属行业周报：美联储鹰派降息，金属价格回调

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [17]. Core Views - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut is expected to positively impact the non-ferrous metals sector, with precious metals likely to experience a long-term bullish trend. The report suggests that domestic monetary and fiscal policies are also expected to support this outlook [83][84]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review - Precious metals prices have decreased, with gold and silver prices showing a weekly decline of 1.7% and 3.0% respectively. As of December 20, 2024, the Shanghai Gold Exchange's spot price for gold was 612 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold was priced at 2641 USD per ounce [29][74]. - Industrial metals have seen a decline in prices across the board, with SHFE copper down 1.3% and LME copper down 2.2%. The latest SHFE copper price is 73820 CNY per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.0% [45][57]. - The report notes that aluminum prices have also decreased, with SHFE aluminum at 19975 CNY per ton, down 1.8% week-on-week [95]. 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with a notable decline in prices for various metals [18]. - The report indicates that the market sentiment remains cautious, with a lack of active trading in the spot market for aluminum due to environmental regulations affecting production stability [21]. 3. Price Trends - The report provides a detailed overview of price changes for various metals, including a 2.5% drop in tin prices and a 5.2% drop in nickel prices. The latest nickel price is 122410 CNY per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.7% [57][62]. - The report also highlights that lead prices have decreased slightly, with SHFE lead at 17360 CNY per ton, showing a weekly change of -0.1% [109]. 4. Production and Capacity - As of November 2024, the total production capacity for electrolytic aluminum in China is reported at 45.02 million tons, with an operating capacity of 43.94 million tons, indicating a utilization rate of 97.74% [107][108]. - The report notes that the production of refined lead has increased by 9.53% year-on-year, with a monthly output of 330,000 tons [5]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies within the non-ferrous metals sector that are likely to benefit from the anticipated economic recovery and policy support. Specific recommendations include companies involved in aluminum and copper production [83][84].