煤炭行业周报：政策加码，重视红利价值

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Outperform the Market (Maintain)" [9] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that policy support is increasing, and the value of dividend assets is continuously emerging. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission has issued guidelines to enhance market value management for state-owned enterprises, which includes increasing cash dividends and establishing regular stock repurchase mechanisms [9][33] - The report predicts that coal prices are expected to rebound in the short term due to increased winter storage demand driven by cold weather and resilient non-electric demand [6][31] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Tracking - Price Overview: The price of thermal coal and coking coal has decreased. As of December 20, 2024, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 767 CNY/ton, down 23 CNY/ton (-2.91%) from the previous week [54][76] - Supply and Demand Analysis: The railway input volume has decreased, and domestic and international freight rates are diverging. The total inventory at major ports has decreased by 104.9 million tons (-1.40%) [94][110] - Inventory Analysis: The inventory of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao has decreased by 11 million tons (-1.60%), while key power plants' inventory has increased by 246 million tons (+1.88%) [113][95] - International Coal Market: International coal prices have declined, with Newcastle FOB thermal coal price at 83.5 USD/ton, down 3.5 USD/ton (-4.02%) [121] 2. Market Review - The coal sector has underperformed the broader market, with significant price declines observed across various coal products [38][121] 3. Recent Events - The report highlights recent policy measures aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing investment growth, which are expected to support coal prices in the medium to long term [31][33]