Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the polyester filament industry, indicating a positive outlook for long-term growth and optimization of the industry structure [10]. Core Insights - Domestic demand and exports are expected to improve, supported by stable consumer confidence and government policies promoting consumption. The textile and apparel industries have shown a recovery, with industrial added value increasing by 5.1% and 0.5% year-on-year respectively from January to October [1]. - The polyester filament industry is witnessing a significant increase in apparent consumption, projected to reach 30.99 million tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.1% [1]. - The industry is moving towards self-regulation, with major manufacturers collaborating to stabilize prices and reduce production, which is expected to enhance market order and profitability [15]. Summary by Sections Domestic Market Performance - The domestic textile and apparel sectors are recovering, with retail sales for clothing and knitted products increasing by 1.1% and 0.6% year-on-year respectively from January to October [1]. - The polyester filament export volume remains high, with a total of 3.17 million tons exported from January to October, despite a year-on-year decrease of 6.1% [1]. Industry Developments - The polyester filament industry has seen a shift towards high-quality development, with a focus on cautious investment and preventing excessive competition. This is reflected in the "High-Quality Development Initiative" released by the China Chemical Fiber Industry Association [10][15]. - The concentration of production capacity among the top six manufacturers has increased significantly, now accounting for 64.4% of total industry capacity, which is expected to facilitate better self-regulation and market stability [15]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a supply-demand gap in the polyester filament market for the years 2024 to 2026, with expected deficits of 270,000 tons, 680,000 tons, and 630,000 tons respectively, indicating a positive long-term market outlook [15].
涤纶长丝行业更新:高质量发展倡议出台,看好长周期格局优化
Tebon Securities·2024-12-22 06:23