宏观：黄金是对未知的定价

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The analysis of gold should focus on whether AI can enhance production efficiency and drive economic growth, potentially impacting gold prices[1] - Gold is characterized by its lack of interest yield, leading to short-term price increases and long-term declines[4] - The recent significant fluctuations in gold prices saw a peak near $2800/oz, followed by a drop to around $2567/oz post-election, with a recent rebound to $2600-$2650/oz[6] Group 2: Economic and Political Influences - The decline in gold prices post-election is attributed to a stronger dollar and easing geopolitical tensions, though these are not the primary factors affecting gold prices[7] - The Biden administration's relatively loose fiscal discipline has contributed to the rising pricing of gold against the dollar since 2022[9] - The long-term outlook for gold remains uncertain, with potential impacts from Trump's policies and AI advancements on the economy and dollar credibility[20] Group 3: Future Projections - If AI successfully leads to significant improvements in productivity, the continuous rise in gold prices may come to an end, signaling a new economic order[25] - The credibility of the global credit currency system has been declining since 2022, which is a key factor in the strengthening of gold against the dollar[18] - The trend of "de-dollarization" may be reinforced under Trump's administration, affecting the demand for gold[21]