交通运输行业月报：预期反应充分，左侧布局龙头公司

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for major companies in the logistics sector, including ZTO Express, Shentong Express, YTO Express, and Yunda Express, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% [5][35]. Core Insights - The logistics industry is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with online consumption lagging behind offline, leading to a decline in the penetration rate of e-commerce [16][47]. - Despite the competitive pricing environment, the average price per package has shown signs of resilience, with a narrowing decline in the average price compared to previous quarters [48]. - The report suggests that the anticipated downturn in industry growth has already been priced in, recommending a strategic investment in leading companies [18][53]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The logistics sector is facing challenges with a decrease in package volume growth compared to previous quarters, with November's package volume growing by 14.9% year-on-year, which is lower than the growth rates seen earlier in the year [48]. - The average price per package has decreased by 1.8% year-on-year in November, but the decline is less severe than in previous months, indicating a more stable pricing environment during the peak season [48]. Company Performance - ZTO Express reported a revenue of 10.7 billion RMB for Q3 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 17.6%, while net profit was slightly below expectations at 2.4 billion RMB [36]. - Shentong Express achieved a revenue of 11.92 billion RMB in Q3, marking a year-on-year increase of 16.3%, with a significant rise in net profit [36]. - YTO Express's revenue reached 16.8 billion RMB in Q3, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.1%, although net profit was lower than expected due to losses from international investments [36]. - Yunda Express reported a revenue of 12.26 billion RMB in Q3, with a year-on-year increase of 8.84%, and a notable improvement in net profit margins [36]. Market Trends - The report highlights a shift in consumer behavior, with online shopping growth slowing down compared to offline sales, attributed to policies encouraging offline consumption [54]. - The logistics sector is expected to face intensified price competition in the coming year, but the report notes that the risks of extreme price wars are currently low due to regulatory interventions [18][47].