有色、基本金属行业周报：美联储鹰派降息落地，美元走强，基本金属整体承压

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Insights - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve's hawkish interest rate cuts have led to a stronger US dollar, putting overall pressure on base metals [2][26] - The report indicates that the macroeconomic environment is supportive, with expectations of continued demand for copper due to supply tightness and favorable domestic policies [18][26] Summary by Sections Economic Indicators - The US December New York Fed Manufacturing Index is at 0.2, with expectations of 12 and a previous value of 31.2 [3] - The US November retail sales month-on-month increased by 0.7%, exceeding expectations of 0.5% [3] - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25%-4.50%, marking the third consecutive cut [3][8] Supply and Demand Dynamics - In November, copper concentrate imports were 2.2445 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.14% [10] - The average price of lead concentrate decreased by 70 yuan per metal ton, reflecting market fluctuations influenced by environmental regulations and supply expectations [14] - The report notes a structural supply shortage in silver, with industrial demand accounting for over 50% of global annual silver demand [7][36] Price Movements - COMEX gold prices fell by 0.95% to $2,640.50 per ounce, while COMEX silver prices dropped by 2.98% to $30.08 per ounce [21][70] - The average price of aluminum decreased by 2.01% to 19,881 yuan per ton, with profits declining significantly [29] - The report indicates that the price of copper on the LME decreased by 1.24% to $8,944.0 per ton [7] Investment Opportunities - Beneficial stocks identified include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, which are expected to benefit from the favorable supply-demand dynamics in the copper market [19][26] - The report suggests that the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, with potential investment opportunities in companies like Yulong Co., Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and others [64][82]