Group 1: Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The liquidity was tight at the beginning of the week due to tax payments, with major banks reducing lending, but eased towards the end as tax payments concluded[21] - The central bank's net reverse repos increased by 11,398 billion CNY, indicating a proactive stance to maintain liquidity stability[58] - A reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut of 0.5 percentage points is expected around December 25, aimed at supporting fiscal measures and stabilizing the economy[39] Group 2: Government Bonds and Financing - Next week, government bond issuance is planned at 1,389.95 billion CNY, with a net repayment of -2,060.45 billion CNY, a significant decrease from the previous week[63] - The total issuance of government bonds this year has reached approximately 46,628.7 billion CNY, exceeding the annual target by 7.44%[60] - The net repayment of local government bonds has significantly decreased, alleviating some liquidity pressure[24] Group 3: Interest Rates and Market Trends - The weighted average cost of interbank certificates of deposit (CD) has decreased to approximately 1.69%, down from 1.76% the previous week[70] - Short-term and long-term CD rates have both declined, with the curve inversion deepening, indicating a shift in market dynamics[40] - The 3-month national stock direct discount rate is at 0.65%, reflecting a decrease of 9 basis points from the previous week[19]
固收流动性周报:流动性|流动性压力缓释,降准渐近
Tianfeng Securities·2024-12-22 07:22