2025年度策略系列报告“碧海潮生，日出东方”：产业结构性机会“觅珠”

Core Concept: Certainty Growth - The report introduces the concept of "certainty growth," which refers to companies that can maintain solid growth even under the most pessimistic performance expectations, indicating high confidence and certainty in future performance [2] - Certainty growth companies are expected to benefit from policy effects and economic recovery, with their growth attributes allowing them to fully capitalize on development dividends [2] - These companies are also seen as having strong defensive capabilities in the face of overseas disturbances and risk aversion [2] - The report identifies certainty growth companies primarily in industries such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, power equipment, defense, and machinery, which are aligned with strategic emerging industries and the cultivation of new productive forces [2][36] New Productive Forces: Low-Altitude Economy and Autonomous Control - The low-altitude economy is highlighted as a trillion-dollar industry with broad application scenarios and high technological content, expected to exceed 1 trillion RMB by 2026 [98][127] - Autonomous control is emphasized as a critical area, particularly in semiconductors and IT infrastructure, driven by external sanctions and the need for domestic substitution [108][116] - The report notes that the low-altitude economy is transitioning from policy-driven to practical implementation, with local governments actively participating in its development [101][133] AI and Computing Infrastructure - AI is driving significant capital expenditure from major global and domestic companies, with a focus on computing infrastructure to meet the growing demand for AI capabilities [7][91] - The report predicts that global AI PC shipments will exceed 100 million units by 2025, accounting for 40% of total PC shipments, with a CAGR of 44% from 2024 to 2028 [7] - Communication equipment, including optical modules, servers, and switches, is expected to benefit from the AI-driven demand for computing infrastructure [90][153] Wind Power Industry - The global wind power market is projected to grow by 125% from 2024 to 2035, with China's wind power industry benefiting from cost competitiveness and export opportunities [13][16] - China's wind power exports are concentrated in "Belt and Road" regions, with significant potential for expansion into Europe and other high-margin markets [19][67] - Domestic wind power demand is supported by large-scale base construction, with offshore wind power expected to enter a new growth cycle [40][82] Semiconductor and IT Infrastructure - The report highlights the ongoing challenges in the semiconductor industry due to US sanctions, with a focus on AI-related chips and advanced manufacturing equipment [112][140] - Domestic substitution in semiconductors is progressing, with notable advancements in etching, cleaning, and thinning equipment, as well as the rise of domestic chip manufacturers [116][140] - The IT infrastructure sector is entering a phase of "real replacement and real use," with significant market potential driven by the need for secure and autonomous systems [143][145] Low-Altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy is seen as a new growth engine, with local governments establishing industrial funds and investment companies to drive regional economic growth [103][133] - The report introduces the concept of "low-altitude fiscal policy," which could provide a sustainable revenue source for local governments by leveraging low-altitude airspace resources [135] - Low-altitude economic industrial parks and experimental zones are emerging, with key enterprises driving the development of the industry [133][134]