策略周评：岁末年初有哪些季节性效应？

Group 1 - The report highlights the seasonal effect of the market at the end of the year and the beginning of the new year, particularly the "spring rally" which typically occurs from January to March, characterized by a market uptrend [17][19] - In the past decade, the average return for small-cap growth stocks during the spring rally has been 18.9%, with a notable 26.5% increase in February of this year, outperforming other style indices [1][6][22] - The report indicates that the market style tends to shift from large-cap blue chips to small-cap growth stocks around the Lunar New Year, with small-cap growth showing better resilience post-holiday [1][2] Group 2 - The formation of the seasonal effect at the beginning of the year is attributed to macro liquidity, micro funding conditions, policy expectations, and fundamental outlooks [2][21] - The report notes that January typically sees significant inflows from foreign capital, averaging a net inflow of 43.2 billion yuan from 2016 to 2023, alongside substantial contributions from insurance and public funds [2][16] - The report suggests that the upcoming "spring rally" will feature a balanced allocation between small-cap technology growth and cyclical stocks, driven by policy catalysts and improving industry sentiment [6][22] Group 3 - The TMT sector and certain cyclical industries are expected to perform well, with the TMT sector showing average returns of 22.7% to 18.3% during the spring rally over the past decade [18][28] - The report emphasizes that the upcoming spring rally will continue to follow the "cross-year market" logic, primarily driven by liquidity trading, with expectations of monetary policy easing in the first quarter [21][22] - Specific investment directions in technology growth include artificial intelligence, new energy, and autonomous control, while cyclical investments should focus on sectors like environmental protection and consumer growth points [22][28]