一周综评与展望：地产销售回暖

Economic Data - In November, the industrial added value of large-scale industries grew by 5.4% year-on-year, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[10] - Retail sales maintained growth, with a slight slowdown in commodity retail but an acceleration in catering revenue[10] - Fixed asset investment growth slightly declined year-on-year, while manufacturing investment continued to maintain high growth[10] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25%-4.5%, aligning with market expectations[2] - The latest dot plot from the December FOMC indicates a reduction in the expected rate cut space for 2025 from 100 basis points to 50 basis points due to increased inflation expectations[2] - The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.25%, marking the third consecutive pause in rate hikes, amid rising inflation and economic recovery[11] Market Outlook - Despite short-term market volatility and a significant drop in U.S. stocks, a long-term positive outlook for U.S. stocks and bonds remains[2] - Real estate sales showed improvement, with year-on-year sales turning positive for the first time in over a year, and a narrowing decline in housing prices[10]