历史复盘与展望：美元较强下，人民币汇率如何波动？

Group 1: Strong Dollar Impact - The recent strong dollar is primarily influenced by expectations surrounding Trump's policies, particularly tariffs, which exert depreciation pressure on non-USD currencies[20] - Since 2023, the interest rate differential between China and the US has inverted, leading to increased offshore financing costs and negative growth in foreign direct investment[21] - The US economy shows resilience with a November ISM manufacturing PMI of 47.5, indicating a recovery of 1.9 percentage points from the previous month[13] Group 2: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - Despite facing significant depreciation pressure against the USD, the RMB has appreciated against a basket of currencies, with the CFETS RMB index rising approximately 3% from 96.84 to 99.76 points between July 2023 and July 2024[64] - The RMB's depreciation expectations are driven by three main factors: divergence in monetary policy between China and the US, the spillover effects of a strong dollar, and the potential need for a moderate RMB depreciation to maintain trade competitiveness[73] - Projections indicate that the USD/RMB exchange rate may fluctuate between 7.3 and 7.5, with the dollar expected to remain strong in 2025[46]