策略周评岁末年初有哪些季节性效应？

Market Trends - From 2004 to 2024, February has the highest probability of market increase at 76%, with an average increase of 4.3% and a median increase of 3.2%[5] - In the period from 2016 to 2023, the average net inflow of northbound funds in January reached 432 billion yuan[7] - The average net inflow of newly established equity funds in January during 2016 to 2023 was 1,031 billion yuan, the highest level of the year[7] Seasonal Effects - The "spring market rally" typically occurs from January to March, characterized by a shift from large-cap blue-chip stocks to small-cap growth stocks[25][26] - The average return of small-cap growth stocks during the spring rally over the past 10 years was 18.9%, with a notable increase of 26.5% in February this year[26] Economic Indicators - The central bank usually increases open market operations in December and January to alleviate liquidity pressure, with average bank customer settlement rates in December and January at 65.9% and 64.8%, respectively[27] - January is historically the month with the lowest trading activity in the year, with an average daily turnover rate of approximately 2.7%[27] Investment Strategy - The upcoming spring rally is expected to maintain a balanced style between small-cap growth and cyclical stocks, driven by liquidity trading and policy catalysts[10][30] - Key sectors to focus on include TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications) and cyclical industries, with specific attention to AI, renewable energy, and domestic manufacturing[31]