农林牧渔行业研究：生猪旺季不旺，关注疫病扰动禽类生产

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry [29][30] Core Insights - The national commodity pig price as of December 20 is 15.82 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.44%. The price for 15 kg piglets is 448 CNY/head, down 10 CNY from the previous week. The average weight of pigs slaughtered this week is 129.85 kg/head, up 0.33 kg from last week [30][32] - The report indicates a recovery in pig consumption before the winter solstice, with slaughter volumes increasing due to higher terminal demand. However, seasonal supply increases and larger average weights have led to weaker prices in northern regions [30][32] - The report suggests that the pessimistic expectations regarding pig prices have been largely priced in, and the slow recovery of production capacity alleviates concerns about future prices. After a period of adjustment, valuations of pig farming companies have returned to the bottom range [30][32] - In the short term, the report expects significant improvement in profits for pig farming companies in Q3/Q4, with the possibility of exceeding expectations. In the medium to long term, the pig farming industry still has excellent central profits, and it is recommended to focus on high-quality companies with low-cost expansion [30][32] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - As of December 20, the average price of white feather chickens is 7.54 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.13%. The average price of dressed chickens is 14.25 CNY/kg, unchanged from last week. The profit for parent breeding chickens is 0.00 CNY/bird, down 100% from last week, while the profit for broilers is -1.44 CNY/bird, also down 100% [32][30] - The report highlights that the supply of breeding chickens is gradually increasing, but overseas efficiency advantages may lead to tighter supply and price increases if import restrictions occur. The report also notes that the demand for poultry products is expected to recover gradually, driven by macro policy adjustments [32][30] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, indicating that corn prices have adjusted downward due to high production expectations, but overall production may still be affected by extreme weather. The report emphasizes the importance of food security in China amid global volatility [31][32] - The report suggests focusing on leading seed companies with advantages in transgenic technology, as these companies may achieve higher sales premiums compared to traditional seeds [31][32]