宏观研究报告：债市上涨之后

Economic Overview - The recent economic data shows resilience due to strong capital expenditure in manufacturing and government sectors, with industrial added value growth at 5.4% year-on-year in November 2024[31] - Social financing stock growth year-on-year is at 7.8%, with RMB loans at 7.4%, indicating a divergence between economic and financial data[31] Monetary Policy and Market Expectations - "Moderate easing" has likely driven market expectations for future monetary loosening, contributing to record low yields on government bonds[2] - The market has already priced in significant future easing, as indicated by the relationship between long-term yields and funding rates[2] Inflation and Global Trends - A potential mild upward trend in global inflation is anticipated, influenced by the global interest rate cut wave, which may affect U.S. Treasury investment value but has limited impact on the RMB exchange rate[3][37] - The Federal Reserve may tighten its policies, particularly quantitative measures, in response to ongoing inflation concerns[37] Stock Market Insights - Despite a recent decline in major stock indices, the valuation of the stock market corresponds to a liquidity expansion rate that exceeds the actual expansion speed[27][35] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.7%, while the CSI 300 and ChiNext Index saw declines of 0.14% and 1.15%, respectively[35] Investment Recommendations - Semiconductor stocks are recommended due to the ongoing global economic cycle and increasing export sales, particularly in relation to Huawei and ASIC chips[9][20] - Government bonds remain a favored asset class, as they are process-oriented and unlikely to trigger a bear market, despite concerns over yield inversion[28][40]